Palace's ceiling
Win today and Palace will 2nd. But what is the ceiling for this season?
It’s been a good start to the season. I know the old saying that you should look at the league table after 10 games. Which is a good saying, as teams change each season, it’s hard to gauge relative level. I am not sure if this season’s Chelsea is better than last season’s. Where does that leave the draw at Stamford Bridge? Was that a good result or a bad result? Being 3rd with 12 points and undefeated after 6 games. Currently on 2 points per game. If Palace kept those points per game up, they would get 78 points. Last season, that would have been good enough to get second.
Individual games
Forest is a disappointment, given their lack of wins this season, but Palace played against Santo’s Forest and not Postecoglou’s Forest. Similarly with Sunderland were on a high when they came to Selhurst. This is swings and roundabouts as Palace played Potter’s West Ham and Villa before they got a goal this season. It’s mad that Palace were third after six games, and some individual results were disappointing. Eze was on the way out, and Pino had come in as a replacement. He looks sharp, but early days, once he settles, I'm hopeful he will be as important as Sarr on the pitch. It took November for Sarr to get his first goal against Villa away. Pino got two assists Dynamo Kyiv. So hopefully it won’t take him as long to settle.
If Palace beat Everton today, then points per game would be the same as when Leicester City won the league. As well as being second after seven games and one point away from the leaders.
Leicester City,
Back in their title-winning season, after six games, they were 3rd. It didn’t come out of nowhere. They struggled the season before, but in the last eight games, they won 6, drew one, and lost one. The season they won the league, they had 81 points, which is the third-lowest points to win the league since 2000. It wasn’t just that Leicester had a good season. Most seasons since that point total would have gotten them 3rd. So if Palace was going to do a Leicester, we would need other teams to have off-season or Palace would need to be better to get the league.
Calm Down
It’s one thing to do this over a couple of months. But Palace would have to do this over the season. That’s difficult to be that consistent, as a dip in form is normal and happens to lots of teams. Palace haven’t had a full season of good results, but have had a good calendar year. Back in 2015, Palace’s calendar year point total was 63 and 7th position. That was followed up with 2016 awful calendar year. 27 points in 38 games, but got the FA cup final.
Last week, Palace were 4th for calendar year 2025. Above Chelsea and Aston Villa. This form isn’t a fluke. Palace have been able to maintain the results for 25 games, but that said, at top 5 pace rather than Champions pace. Palace are 9 points from Liverpool’s results in that time.
Pride before a fall
This season is different from last season. Palace is playing in Europe. In the last ten years, the average drop for new entrants is 10 points. One thing to add is that teams got into Europe had good season by their standards to get into Europe but might be a one off. Even if they weren’t in Europe they might have drop off next season. In 20-21 West Ham got into Europe with 65 points; next season, they got 9 fewer points with European football. But in the 19-20 season, they got 39 points, so 20-21 they increased their points by 26. So the season with Europe is better than 19-20.
Most of those were under the old format. The new format has more games. But there are more games against lesser quality. Bigger Champions League and Europa League means that the quality of the middle and bottom teams is weaker. Like Shamrock, Lincoln Red Imps, and Hamrun Spartans wouldn't have made the group stage the year West Ham won it. The top teams like Florentina are about the same as before the reshuffle. They might be a league position lower or two, but the quality isn’t much different.
It's definitely something that affects the season. Players run out of legs. Munoz is playing a silly number of games, including internationals in a World Cup year. That said, the FA cup run didn't slow the team down much. Second half of the season, you could say the draw against Southampton was a disappointment. Only losing against Brentford (h), Everton (h), Newcastle (a), and Manchester City (a). While fielding strong teams in the FA Cup. On the otherside there must be a limit.
Ultimately
This is going to be one of the most fun seasons to be a Palace fan. There is a real chance to do something more special than last season. Which is ridiculous. Opta prediction model has Palace 4th with a 4.55% chance of winning the league. More than double the chances of Chelsea. Palace are favourites for the Conference League. This is probably the last year for Marc Guéhi, Daichi Kamada, and Oliver Glasner. Let’s hope they leave it all on the field and get some more glory.
Palace for Life,
I am going to participate in the Palace for Life Marathon March next week. This blog takes up a good amount of effort. I am dyslexic, as you probably know from odd spellings and use of the wrong words. It would mean a lot to me if some people who can afford it donated the cost of a coffee or a pint.