Winter transfer window preview 26
Here is the preview to the hotly anticipated transfer window that would solve all the problems....
Hotly Anticipated
I listen to a lot of Palace fans. Hope is high for this window. This fixes the problems, and suddenly perfect second half of the season is coming. This window would show Oliver Glasner that he should commit to Palace for more seasons. I am nervous that hopes are too high and expectations are too high. I don’t like to tell people how to feel, but when is window is closed, it’s not going to solve all the problems.
Damage is done
The board didn’t gamble in Summer enough. There wasn’t the depth to rotate enough in the league phase and now in the second half it’s more difficult to rotate in knockouts as a bad game and the club is out of the tournement.
At the moment, any problem that the team has is due to too much football and not a deep enough squad. This is a fair summary of some of the issues. It is then followed up by optimism that this can be fixed in January. I am normally a glass-half-full person, but I don’t think that signings would change the situation as quickly as fans hope.
Glanser is a system manager; it can take a long time for players to bed in. The players need to know the system. A great example was Sarr. Came in August, played from the bench, but wasn’t a regular starter until November. If takes 3-4 months for a new player to get the system and be integrated, then looking for the player to make a difference in April.
It always stuck with me an interview with Pulis, he mentioned how much time every week he had to spend with the team to get the positional play correct. If he didn’t spend time on it each week then the team would be off and not defend how he set them up to defend. In a high-pressure team, if you have one player not pressing with the team, it makes it much easier for the opposition to escape the press and be in a great position, as Palace have committed to the press high up the pitch. This takes time for players to learn. Hopefully, Palace adds players familiar with this kind of system.
On the counterpoint, players can make an impact without playing. Last winter, Ben Chillwell was a good signing for a couple of months. But only started two games and played a total of 400 minutes. His impact came through providing competition with Micthell. It gave him a chance to rest. That then improved his form.
Speed
Palace is due to play six games in January and eight games in February (if Palace knock out Maccesfield). Sarr could be gone till 18th January. There isn’t going to be much time for them to get used to their team mates in the training pitch as they will be constantly playing.
Current Injuries
From www.premierinjuries.com, Nothing is guaranteed. There isn’t a key player out for a long time. Other than that, they needed a better backup for Muñoz as he is out till at least late January, and understudies Cardines and Kporha are both currently injured.
Squad usage
Above is a table for squad minutes for all competitions by 20%. This is an average for each team in a split by which European competition they are playing in. I have not included newly promoted teams in these figures as they still have a championship squad that they have added to. I would expect them to be outliers. I have included Wolves, who seem to have struggled to find their best 11, which has made them an outlier.
Palace has 6 players who played in over 80% of games this season. That’s joint top with Everton. Bournemouth and Brentford have five players in that range. I don’t think Palace is unusual compared to the non-European teams. You can see that Brighton and Fulham have more rotation, but they have more players in the 60%-80% sections. Overall, most of these teams have nine players in the over 60% bucket. But Palace has ten players who have played more than 60% of the minutes this season. This is not ideal, especially with the increased number of games due to the League Cup run and European football.
I think that the 5 most played players are the core of the first team. Below is a table showing the percentage of play time for the 5th most-played player of each team. Injuries can affect this statistic. Saka is Arsenal’s 5th top player, but they would have wanted him to play more. He was out for a month with a hamstring injury. Muñoz had the second most minutes before his injury, and now is down to 6th.
Now, looking at the Palace squad as a whole. Lacroix, Guéhi, and Richards are all above 80%. This show’s weakness is at center back. While Canvot has played in 23% most of that was in Europe and the League Cup. He only has 100 minutes in the league. Lerma was preferred against Spurs. Palace plays with three center-backs; we need more depth. I don’t mean players making up the numbers, but a player who would reduce the need for Lacroix and Guéhi to be starting the most in the whole squad. This is tricky as the player would need to come in ahead of Canvot and Lerma. If Lerma was on the bench against Spurs, he could have come on to get some fresh legs as Hughes and Wharton were tiring. Lack of depth at center back is creating a problem in the center midfield. If Palace weren’t in Europe, then relying on utility players to create depth is great, but this season, it’s more of an issue, as a problem in one position can create a knock-on issue. Which is more likely given the extra games.
Forward
Mateta has played 4th most minutes this season for Palace. Below I am comparing his workload to other strikers in the Premier League that also playing in Europe. Haaland is the only one who is close to him in terms of minutes, and he is a monster. Mateta is underperforming his xG by five goals rest of these strikers are overperforming. I think we should bring in a striker to compete with Mateta.
Uche could be the answer. Now he is seen as second-choice striker as Eddie Nketiah lost that spot in the depth chart. It’s taken him a while, but now I do see him as a dangerous player from the bench. The problem is that if Mateta is injured could stall the season in the same way as when Muñoz got injured.
Right wing back
It’s nice to have an academy graduate with European and international experience play for Palace. Clyne is a decent player as a last resort. But Muñoz so key to our attack. It feels like we have an overload of numbers even when we don’t. As he plays the right so well. We need to have a better backup plan. Even if there is attacking backup and defensive backup that Palace mixes and matches with them depending on the opponent. Clyne would be a defensive option and need more attacking option.
Left Wing back
This may be harsh. I just feel disappointed in Sosa not contributing more in the league phase of the conference league. Mitchel has the 3rd most minutes in the role that demands a lot physically. Mitchel is key for both the defence and attack.
A ten
The other suggestions are about strengthening the back-ups to reduce the strain on the first team. A bit like Chilwell’s loan last season. We need to have a higher quality number 10 to score more goals. I think Pino will come good and Sarr is great when a team attacks and doesn’t use a low block. I think Palace should them in rotation. Pino starts against the low block, and Sarr plays the last 20 mins when they are tired, and there is more space. I would like the new player to be the main starting 10 next to either Sarr or Pino. Or all three are in rotation depending on the opposition.
Johnson,
Brennan Johnson has been strongly linked to Palace. It was reported yesterday that the bid was accepted. Last season for Tottenham, he got 11 Premier League goals and 5 Europa League goals, including in the final. This season has been out of favour, but he still got two league goals and a Champions League goal. This is due to Frank changing the style of the team. He is known for one-touch finishes at the back post. At the moment, Palace are creating a lot but not finishing it, he would be a great signing to finish the chances.
Bobb,
Looks like Seymour is looking to leave Bournemouth for Manchester City, which might add competition for Johnson. But it would mean Bobb is available at Manchester City. Most youngsters from Manchester City who leave to join Premier League clubs like Palmer and Delap have been big hits. He looks like a sharp player, but doesn’t have the experience of Johnson. He has only had 847 minutes in the Premier League with one goal and 292 minutes in the Champions League with one goal. This isn’t much different than Palmer when he left City. As they have a lot of quality and depth in the squad. It’s a sign of a decent player that he is playing at all for them. But at the same time, he is making way for Seymour.
Sterling
This would be a dream, and I think it is very unlikely. He was a very good player in his day, and it's shameful how Chelsea has treated him. I mainly want him to play for Palace for non-footballing reasons. Back in 2019, Damary Dawkins passed away at 13. He was a Palace youth player. Sterling visited him in the hospital. Since then I have always wanted him to play for Palace.
Conference league (cup tied)
Palace can add three more players to the squad, but must deregister a player for each new addition. Registered players include Riad and Kporha, who didn’t play in the competition. Since 2019, UEFA has dropped the cup-tied rules, which means Palace could sign a player playing in the Champions League, like Brennan Johnson or Oscar Bobb.
Future seasons
Palace needs to keep an eye on future seasons. Next season, Guéhi, Kamada, and Lerma are out of contract. Good chance that Wharton will be sold and Uche will go back after the loan. Palace could sign the replacements or younger players to be understudies for these players. It is the end of the season in South America might be a good time to bring over the younger players and give them 8 months to settle before next season. Matt Hobbs works at Palace and was previously at Wolves when they signed two players from Fluminense. Both happened in summer windows.
Careful
For transfer fees in this window, they are spread over the contract. When it comes down to accounts (not the cash payment). If Palace signs Johnson on £35m on a 3-and-a-half-year deal. The cost this season for the transfer is £5m, but next season it would be £10m. This is the amortisation of the transfer fee. We don’t want to be an amortisation hangover again. In a position where Palace have to sell players stay within financial rules without freeing up much money to buy new players.