Conference league knockout stage preview
Squad rules, upcoming opponents, seeded bracket, dates to mark for the dairy, odds and prize money...
Squad
The squad for the knockout phase has been announced on the UEFA website. The rules are that Palace can add three new players if they remove three players. Palace added Johnson, Larsen, and Guessand. Then removed Esse, Guéhi, and Uche.
Uche
I think this is harsh. He is a menace. Still very raw, but could make the difference in the last twenty mins of games, especially if there are injuries.
Part of the rules is that the squad needs 4 club-trained players (4) and 4 more than association-trained (6). Marc and Romain were both association-trained. Brennan is association trained. Palace has enough for those limitations.
Wharton
Wharton from January qualifies as b squad player. Players who are 16 and under or born after 1 January 2004 and have been registered for two years at the club can be registered as B squad. Adam was born on 6th February 2004 and was signed on 1st Feb 2024. He currently meets the requirements to be a B-squad player. B squad players can be registered up to the night before a game. In the summer, Wharton had to be A registered player as he was only at Palace for a year and a half. I have checked the UEFA rules; it doesn't state whether you can or cannot remove a player from A to be included in B. It might be against the rules, but I cannot see it written anywhere. I am surprised that Palace hasn’t done this. They could have asked UEFA for clarification.
Club trained
Palace cannot remove any of the club-trained players. As we have to include four spaces for club trained. Even if they remove Rak-Sakyi, they could only replace him with another club-trained player.
Remi Matthews
I would have looked at Matthews. Rules state that there must be two keepers in a squad and at least one from the B squad. Henderson has had a bad injury record before he signed for Palace. If he is out, then you're down to one senior keeper. That's a massive risk. That said, I am not sure there is a massive gap from Matthews to add a name. But it's a huge risk and could knock Palace out. If Henderson gets injured, and a suspension to Bentítez. Then you're starting a keeper with zero senior football experience. Very unlikely to happen, but Whitworth has started for Palace, so it is possible.
Bracket
Based on the league phase, teams are seeded and put into a bracket. Palace finished 10th, so we will face Zrinjski Mostar, which finished 23rd. In the next round, the winner will face the team that finished 7th-8th. Then, in the quarter final, it will be the winner of Strasbourg 1st or Raków 2nd, and Fiorentina or Jagiellonia Białystok. The league phase position does have an impact on the route to the final.
We’re the Silver side
If there is a bracket, why is there a draw? The draw picks which team will be on the green half or the silver half. UEFA put this in so they could stop certain teams playing each other until the final. In this season, a team from Kosovo couldn’t play a team from Bosnia-Herzegovina until the final. They don’t want a Kosovo side hosting Bosain side for safety reasons. So Zrinjski Mostar is on the Silver side, and Drita are on the green side. Drita was drawn to the green, which meant Zrinjski was allocated to the silver side.
Top teams to be drawn
The top 8 will be drawn into the silver and green side of the draw. This will happen on 27 February 2026. The day after the punishment round (knockout playoff). For the round of 16. It’s either Larnca or Mainz. Mainz has been struggling in the league. They are currently 14th in (16th goes to relegation playoff in Bundesliga) and two points above the drop zone
Home and Away
This is the first year the path set at the start with Home / Away giving advantage to the higher-ranked team. So Palace will host Zrinjski in the second leg. There are no away goals rules anymore. If it’s level after two legs, then it goes to extra time and Penalties. It’s quite an advantage to be at home for the extra time and Penalties if needed. Home and away order is preset, so if there is an upset, that team gains the advantage. But is also subject to change. There is a bit of small print that if there are two games that are near each other, the lower-ranked game might switch home and away. This won’t be a problem for Palace, as Forest and Villa aren’t close, but it still might affect us; our opponents could be switched due to other teams having a clash. I wonder how UEFA will deal with Chelsea, Arsenal, and Tottenham, due to have round 16 games on Tuesday and Wednesday in the Champions League. Chelsea might have their game switched, or they might ignore it, as London is a city used to hosting lots of games a day.
”If two or more clubs from the same city, within a radius of 50km of each other and/or playing in the same stadium, take part in any of the UEFA club competitions, and if the association and the clubs concerned explicitly declare when entering the clubs that their matches cannot be played on the same day or on consecutive days, the 5 UEFA administration may alter or confirm dates and kick-off times in accordance with the principles set by the Club Competitions Committee.”
.
Path to Final
Strength of schedule league phase
The league phase schedule was based on playing teams from different pots. Each team played a team from each pot. The idea is that all the teams play roughly the same strength of teams. I don’t think the pots were well done. Below is the table with the average points per game of opposition teams. Got to feel for Aberdeen. They had to go to AEK Athens 3rd (6-0), AEK Lamaca 8th (0-0), Sparta Prague 4th (3-0) and hosted Shkhtar 6th (2-3), Noah 19th (1-1), and Strasbourg 1st (0-1). They lost four and two draws. They played against teams that had 12.5 points per game.
Shakhtar Donetsk had the easiest schedule. They played Rijeka and drew nil nil. That was their hardest match. The rest of the teams they played went out in the League phase.
Palace had 8.8, which was above the league average of 8.3. But it’s not far off an average run in for the league phase. So we cannot complain. Interestingly, only one team in the top 8 had harder-than-average fixtures. But I think that is explained by the small number of games. As the top 8 on average didn’t win two games of the six, which means the team they are facing wouldn’t have done well against them. Similar to only two teams in the top 8 played against each other. If they win the playoff game, they will be up against the highest-ranked green team in round 16.
Odds
Interestingly, the highest-ranked in the league phase outside the favourite 7 are Raków and Sparta Prague only teams in the top 8 that faced each other. But at the same time, there transfermakt squad value was Raków € 42.30m and Sparta Prague €78.15m. These are just silly estimates, but gives you some form of comparison.
The teams in the top three leagues are struggling. Next season, there may be a team in the second tier that is playing in the Europa League. Fiorentina are currently in the relegation zone but are 8/1 to go down. Basically, in Italy, it’s one of four teams in the last relegation spot, and the other teams are more likely. Mainz are 7/2 to get relegated. None of these teams is like Wolves or West Ham, but they are in battle. The otherside of that is most likely way back into Europe next season is via winning this cup.
Dark Horse
Last year, only one team from outside the top 8 had a good run. That was Real Betis that got to the final. I have a feeling this year will be different. As strong league teams are having difficulty domestically. Rijeka could be interesting. Only conceded twice against Noah and Lincoln Red Imps. Being hard to beat over two legs is important. They had the second-hardest run-in and got two wins, three draws, and a loss. I think they could go on a run.
Prize money
Round of 16: €800,000
Quarter-finals: €1,300,000
Semi-finals: €2,500,000
Runners-up: €4,000,000
Winners: €7,000,000
That’s not all the money from the tournament. Palace will also get gate receipts. Based on the tickets and silly guesstimates. It would be around £700k for normal tickets (workings below). Guessing that 20k were sold and no discounts. I know there were some discounts. There would be more money for the corporate, but I am missing all the costs from players’ appearance fees, goals bonuses, Policing, travel for away leg, and staffing costs.
